So I was wrong: Marine Le Pen got 20%

Marine Le Pen: Smiles All Round. Photography: Remi Noyon

Here are the most recent results of the first round (they are still being fully released as I write):
Hollande: 28.8%
Sarkozy: 26.1%
Marine Le Pen: 18.5%
Mélenchon: 11.7%
Bayrou: 8.8%
Joly: 2.3%
Others: the rest...

Would you know it? As I predicted, my predictions were wrong. And how wrong they were.

After all the support that Mélenchon appeared to have, and all the noise being made about him in the media, he must be disappointed with his result. I truly thought that he may catch the protest vote but even then, there was an abstention rate of nearly 20%, particularly shocking when you consider the wide depth of thought within the different candidates.

And then Marine Le Pen received nearly 20% of the vote. Nearly 1 in 5 French people voted for the National Front, a xenophobic and Islamophobic party, entirely against immigration, and a party that claims that it is the "only opposition to the left". Marine Le Pen's new approach has certainly brought in more youth and it is certainly worrying. No wonder there are immigr

Predictions for the first round of the 2012 French Elections

I thought that I would make things a little more interesting by putting some predictions out there. I will mention that my predictions are often wrong so do not expect too much from them.

1st:  Nicolas Sarkozy
2nd: François Hollande
3rd: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
4th: Marine Le Pen

As you can see, I do believe that the Left Front candidate Mélenchon will have done enough to take some support away from both Hollande from left-wing supporters and also from Marine Le Pen, in terms of supporters who are fed up of the mainstream parties.

For now, all there is to do is wait. You can also read my analysis of the French elections so far here: http://www.sirajdatoo.com/2012/04/france-2012-road-to-elysee.html

France 2012: The road to Élysée

Tomorrow, France will decide its representatives from a list of 10 candidates. The majority will receive a combined vote of less than 10%. Two weeks ago, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was part of that majority and yesterday night I went to Place de la Republique, the central area in Le Mans, to see a large screen displaying a live speech by the Left Front candidate. A few weeks ago, Mélenchon was barely mentioned; he wasn’t making enough noise to capture the attention of the French public. Yet, yesterday, there was a larger crowd than I have ever seen gathered in the little square.

Mélenchon has managed to garner support from around the country, while taking somewhat radical positions. One of his major arguments is that there needs to be greater wealth redistribution in France; as President, he would place a 100% tax on earnings over £300,000. He also speaks about the failure of neo-liberalism, and lambasts European leaders for their inability to deal with the economic downturn - a sentiment which Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has endorsed (though I'm not entirely sure he would agree with all that Mélenchon has to say!). This, coupled with claims that Sarkozy is a candidate of the rich, ensures that Mélenchon is providing a distinct voice; incidentally, Sarkozy did not help to refute this claim when he put away his €55,000 watch before shaking hands with supporters, inspiring rumours that he feared it might be stolen).

Spontaneity at TEDx Warwick 2012

Photography: TEDxWarwick

On 10th March, I attended TEDxWarwick 2012 for two reasons. The first was in my capacity as part of the speakers team and the second at part of the TSJ team covering the event (TSJ were the official media partners for the event). I joined TEDxWarwick in my first year at Warwick; I wanted to get involved in various activities and it was one of the first that caught my eye - and I am so glad I did. After the first event, I was hooked - I heard some fantastic speakers and the team environment was fantastic. So I re-applied and joined the team for the next event. And I did the very same a year later.


Yet the event this year was different - TEDxWarwick 2012 was taken to the next level and its new venue (the Butterworth Hall) could hold 1800 people. It still sold out. The event was once again brilliant and I can't imagine any of of the attendees having left the event feeling at least a little bit inspired or more knowledgable. I'm not here to talk about the event though - we will be publishing an article summarising the event in the next few days.


I want to talk about the moment when over 1000 people stood up and started dancing.

Kony2012 – Share intelligently, donate wisely

Screenshot from YouTube

Fact: In 2003, Jan Egeland, then UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, said, “The conflict in northern Uganda is the biggest forgotten, neglected humanitarian emergency in the world today”.

Fact: 300,000 children are presently involved in over 30 conflicts around the globe, according to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

Fact: Joseph Rao Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has been abducting children and using them as sex slaves or child soldiers for over 20 years.

Fact: Invisible Children (IC) have made millions of people aware of the situation in Central Africa through their Kony2012 campaign and should be commended for their admirable work.

Fact: IC have deceived millions of people into believing that by donating money, they will join an “army of peace”; in fact, the organisation is in favour of military intervention and supports the Ugandan military.

If you have no idea what I’m talking about, allow me to briefly explain. In their words, Kony2012 is a film and campaign by Invisible Children that “aims to make Joseph Kony famous, not to celebrate him, but to raise support for his arrest and set a precedent for international justice.” The video is about 30 minutes long and is well worth a watch.